Trinidad and Tobago have maintained a non-interference policy with regard to the crisis in Venezuela. T&T might find itself in the middle of what US political figure Ron Paul called a possible Nuclear war. For most geopolitical analysists the situation depends entirely upon whether or not the US decides to invade Venezuela in order to ‘restore’ their constitution.

T&T continues today to recognize the current president of Venezuela Nicholas Maduro as the legitimate leader of the country. This stance has been deeply concerning for the US embassy located here and has possibly been the reason why T&T was left out of meeting with US president Trump in March.

Should the US decide to take intervene militarily, it is undoubtedly obvious that T&T will be effected in some way. The million dollar question is and revolves around whether or not we will see this occur.

What’s US secretary of State saying?

On May 5 United States secretary of state Mike Pompeo was asked if military intervention in Venezuela was really an option. He responded saying “make no mistake about it”.

Since the latest Venezuela unrest, Pompeo has been stating that Russia continues to be a hindrance to the ‘restoration of democracy’ in Venezuela. He even claimed that current Venezuelan president, an enemy to the US, Nicholas Maduro was leaving the country in late April only to be convinced to do otherwise by Russia.

Does President Trump contradict Pompeo?

The comments by Pompeo came two days after it was announced that US president Donald Trump had decided to take an approach oriented around dialogue instead of invasion.

Trump spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin via telephone and after said: “He is not looking at all to get involved in Venezuela, other than he’d like to see something positive happen for Venezuela”.

American Political Expert weighs in

Ron Paul, a retired American politician who served as the U.S. Representative for Texas, wrote an extensive analysis on the situation. He stated that “it is ironic that Pompeo and the rest of the neocons in the Trump Administration are ready to attack Venezuela to “restore their constitution” but they could not care less about the US Constitution!”

Mr. Ron Paul

Paul went on to call out the mainstream media for spreading “nothing but non-stop war propaganda.” He sites past cases where the US failed to ‘restore democracy’ such as 2003 Iraq.

Venezuela’s Opposition may call for the invasion

BBC News published a story on May 5. featuring an interview with Venezuela opposition leader Juan Guaido. The heading of the article was “Guaidó ‘considering asking US for military intervention”.

Venezuela Opposition leader Juan Guaido

The article appears to be somewhat misleading since in the interview Guaido only stated on the topic of international intervention that it is responsible to evaluate those options.

“I think President Trump’s position is very firm, which we appreciate, as does the entire world,”

Guaido stated in the interview

What about Russia?

Russia’s stance appears to be the same as it has been since last year, namely that no international intervention, especially military should be used in an attempt to solve the problem.

The Kremlin issued a bulletin of the discussion that took place between Putin and Trump which expressed this further.

[On the topic of] Venezuela, Putin underscored.. that outside interference in the country’s internal affairs and attempts to change the government by force undermine prospects for a political settlement”

Kremlin bulletin stated

However, in December 2018 media houses in Russia and Venezuela were talking about a new Russian military base located on Venezuelan island La Orchila in the Caribbean Sea. Though not much is known about this project.

Finally

It is still unclear what exactly is going to happen in Venezuela. They are very high up officials in the US stating that it is very likely for the invasion to occur. Yet at the same time many with similar stature and more in some cases are saying that it is not going to happen.

Trinidad is very close to Venezuela and it is unknown what would happen if the US decided to invade Venezuela militarily. As of right now, it seems as though military intervention is unlikely although many powerful neo-conservatives are pushing for it to occur.